Xi Jinping's economic agenda for 2025 revealed
Deficit spending to rise, monetary policy to expand to levels unseen since post-GFC era
The Chinese government has just held its most important economic meeting before 2024 draws to a close.
The Central Economic Work Meeting, convened from 11 - 12 December, is the key to understanding Xi Jinping's economic policy agenda for 2025.
Here are 7 of the key takeaways from the event:
1. China will go further into debt to implement more active fiscal policy.
The Central Economic Work Meeting said China will raise the deficit ratio, and expand the intensity of fiscal expenditures.
It will increase the issuance of ultra-long-term Chinese treasuries and local government bonds.
2. China will loosen up monetary policy to levels not seen since the GFC's aftermath.
The Central Economic Work Meeting made use of the phrase "moderately loose monetary policy" (适度宽松的货币政策) - a term not employed since 2011, in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.
China is set to further increase the money supply via cuts to both interest rates and the required reserve ratio in 2025.
3. Xi Jinping wants the Chinese to become more avid consumers.
Contrary to claims by prominent economists in the West, Xi Jinping is not morally averse to consumption.
The Central Economic Work Conference called for "vigorously spurring consumption.”
It plans to "implement specialised campaigns to spur consumption, drive income gains and burden reductions for low and medium-income groups, and raise the ability and willingness to consume."
Improvements to the pension system will play a key role here.
4. China is determined to stabilise the property and stock markets.
The Central Economic Work Meeting made unprecedented use of the phrase "stabilise the property market and the stock market" (稳住楼市股市).
This signals Xi's determination to bring an end to China's three-year property slump, which is dragging heavily on domestic demand.
5. Xi Jinping wants to supercharge tech innovation.
Another Trump presidency waits in the wings, and the possibility of further tariffs and export restrictions now loom.
Fearful of America's ability to restrict China's access to critical technologies, the Central Economic Work Conference has called for "strengthening basic research and breakthroughs in critical technologies."
China also hopes to achieve structural reform of its economy, by "using technological innovation to guide the development of new quality productive forces."
6. China still wants to open up its economy to the rest of the world.
The Central Economic Work Meeting called for "expanding high level external opening."
The goal here is to "stabilise trade and foreign investment," both of which continue to play a critical role in the Chinese economy.
China will also "drive increases in the quality and efficiency" of its many free trade pilot zones scattered around the country.
7. The Party remains firmly in control of China's economic destiny.
A final point of emphasis made by the Central Economic Work Meeting is the need to "strengthen the Party's leadership of economic work."
Beijing will "ensure that all decisions made by the Central Committee of the Party are properly implemented."